Friendly International (World) · Fri, Oct 2 · 12:00 · DR Congo vs Uganda
Likeliest: DR Congo win · 60%
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 40%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
DR Congo60%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Uganda16%16%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 40% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 84% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
DR Congo
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 28 · at Zimbabwe (A)2-1
- Sep 24 · v Equatorial Guinea (H)2-0
- Jul 1 · at England (A)1-2
- Jun 27 · v Uzbekistan (H)3-1
- Jun 24 · at Colombia (A)0-1
Uganda
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 29 · v Libya (H)1-0
- Sep 24 · at Tunisia (A)1-1
- Nov 18 · at Morocco (A)0-4
- Nov 14 · v Chad (H)2-1
- Jul 24 · v Senegal (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | DR Congo | Uganda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-3 | 3-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.