3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Drøbak/Frogn vs Elverum
Likeliest: Drøbak/Frogn win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 34%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Drøbak/Frogn47%34%+13
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+4
OursMarket
Elverum28%46%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 74% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 54% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 66% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 43% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Drøbak/Frogn
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Oppsal (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Sarpsborg 08 II (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at Bjoerkelangen (A)6-0
- Sep 19 · v Gjøvik-Lyn (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Raelingen FK (A)2-2
Elverum
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Lyn 1896 FK II (H)4-3
- Oct 3 · v Bjoerkelangen (H)5-0
- Sep 26 · at Sandefjord Fotball II (A)3-4
- Sep 19 · v Raelingen FK (H)4-1
- Sep 16 · v Raufoss (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Drøbak/Frogn | Elverum |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-1 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.