Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:45 · Drogheda United vs Derry City
Likeliest: Derry City win · 46%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Drogheda United27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Derry City46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Drogheda United
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 8 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)1-3
- Sep 18 · at Bohemian FC (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Shelbourne (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Sligo Rovers (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Dundalk FC (H)2-3
Derry City
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 18 · v Galway United (H)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Waterford FC (A)2-2
- Sep 11 · at Shelbourne (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)3-3
- Aug 21 · at Bohemian FC (A)3-5
| Last 10 games | Drogheda United | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-3 | 1-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.