Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:45 · Drogheda United vs Sligo Rovers
Likeliest: Drogheda United win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Drogheda United55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Sligo Rovers20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Drogheda United
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Aug 28 · v Dundalk FC (H)2-3
- Aug 21 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-2
- Aug 7 · at Galway United (A)0-0
- Jul 31 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)0-0
- Jul 25 · at Sligo Rovers (A)2-2
Sligo Rovers
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Aug 28 · at Bohemian FC (A)0-3
- Aug 21 · v Waterford FC (H)0-0
- Aug 7 · at Derry City (A)0-2
- Jul 31 · at Dundalk FC (A)1-1
- Jul 25 · v Drogheda United (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Drogheda United | Sligo Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-3 | 0-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.