Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:30 · Dukla Banská Bystrica vs FK Železiarne Podbrezová
Likeliest: FK Železiarne Podbrezová win · 51%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dukla Banská Bystrica26%27%−1
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
FK Železiarne Podbrezová51%48%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 60% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dukla Banská Bystrica
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 14 · at MFK Vranov nad Topľou (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · at AS Trenčín (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at MFK Zemplín Michalovce (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v MFK Skalica (H)3-2
- Sep 6 · at FC Košice (A)0-3
FK Železiarne Podbrezová
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v FC Spartak Trnava (H)1-3
- Sep 29 · at Inter Bratislava (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at MFK Skalica (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v KFC Komárno (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at MŠK Žilina (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Dukla Banská Bystrica | FK Železiarne Podbrezová |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.