Czech Cup (Czech Republic) · Fri, Oct 2 · 16:00 · Dukla Praha vs FK Jablonec
Likeliest: FK Jablonec win · 55%
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dukla Praha16%20%−5
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+2
OursMarket
FK Jablonec55%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 47% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 28% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 0.5 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dukla Praha
LossLossWinLossLoss
- May 23 · v Baník Ostrava (H)0-3
- May 16 · at Teplice (A)0-2
- May 12 · at Mladá Boleslav (A)2-1
- May 9 · v Slovácko (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Zlín (A)1-2
FK Jablonec
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v FC Zlín (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Baník Ostrava (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · v FC Slovan Liberec (H)1-2
- Sep 2 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Dukla Praha | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.