Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 2 · 18:45 · Dundalk FC vs Bohemian FC
Likeliest: Bohemian FC win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dundalk FC25%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Bohemian FC48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 38% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dundalk FC
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 18 · v Shelbourne (H)2-3
- Sep 14 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-4
- Sep 11 · at Waterford FC (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Drogheda United (A)3-2
- Aug 21 · v Galway United (H)1-2
Bohemian FC
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 18 · v Drogheda United (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Galway United (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Sligo Rovers (H)3-0
- Aug 21 · v Derry City (H)5-3
- Aug 13 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Dundalk FC | Bohemian FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-5 | 4-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.