Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:45 · Dundalk FC vs Shelbourne
Likeliest: Dundalk FC win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dundalk FC41%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Shelbourne31%32%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dundalk FC
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 14 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-4
- Sep 11 · at Waterford FC (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Drogheda United (A)3-2
- Aug 21 · v Galway United (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)2-3
Shelbourne
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 14 · v Drogheda United (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Derry City (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Galway United (A)1-1
- Aug 13 · v AFC Ajax (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Dundalk FC | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-4 | 0-6-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.