Premiership (Scotland) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Dundee FC vs Motherwell
Likeliest: Motherwell win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dundee FC28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Motherwell43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dundee FC
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · at Hearts (A)1-2
- Sep 2 · v St. Johnstone (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Hibernian (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Dundee United (A)2-0
- Aug 8 · v Aberdeen (H)2-0
Motherwell
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 15 · v Aberdeen (H)0-4
- Sep 5 · at Rangers (A)0-1
- Sep 2 · v Dundee United (H)3-0
- Aug 30 · at St. Mirren (A)3-3
- Aug 27 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Dundee FC | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.