Premiership (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Dundee United vs Aberdeen
Likeliest: Dundee United win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dundee United44%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Aberdeen29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dundee United
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at St. Johnstone (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Hibernian (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at St. Mirren (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · v Falkirk FC (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at Motherwell (A)0-3
Aberdeen
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v St. Mirren (H)3-1
- Oct 11 · v St. Johnstone (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Hibernian (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Motherwell (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · v Kilmarnock (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Dundee United | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.