Premiership (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Dundee United vs Hibernian
Likeliest: Hibernian win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dundee United33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Hibernian39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dundee United
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at St. Mirren (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · v Falkirk FC (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at Motherwell (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Kilmarnock (A)4-0
- Aug 22 · v Dundee FC (H)0-2
Hibernian
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v Aberdeen (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Kilmarnock (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at St. Johnstone (A)1-2
- Sep 3 · v Hearts (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Dundee FC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Dundee United | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.