Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Dunfermline Athletic vs Livingston
Likeliest: Livingston win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dunfermline Athletic30%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Livingston41%39%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 53% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dunfermline Athletic
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Ayr United (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Greenock Morton (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Queen's Park FC (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Arbroath (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Raith Rovers (H)1-0
Livingston
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Partick Thistle (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · v Ayr United (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Raith Rovers (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (H)2-2
- Sep 11 · at Greenock Morton (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Dunfermline Athletic | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.