Championship (Scotland) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Dunfermline Athletic vs Partick Thistle
Likeliest: Partick Thistle win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 65% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dunfermline Athletic32%36%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Partick Thistle36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 46% | −12 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dunfermline Athletic
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Livingston (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Ayr United (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Greenock Morton (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Queen's Park FC (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Arbroath (A)1-1
Partick Thistle
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 16 · at Ayr United (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Livingston (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Arbroath (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Raith Rovers (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at Stenhousemuir (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Dunfermline Athletic | Partick Thistle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 4-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.