2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, May 17 · 13:30 · Dynamo Dresden vs Holstein Kiel
Likeliest: Dynamo Dresden win · 46%
A 30% away win. The market says 22%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dynamo Dresden46%55%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Holstein Kiel30%22%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 78% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 45% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 71% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dynamo Dresden
WinWinLossWinLoss
- May 9 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)1-2
- May 2 · v Kaiserslautern (H)1-0
- Apr 24 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)1-3
- Apr 18 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Nürnberg (A)2-0
Holstein Kiel
WinWinWinWinLoss
- May 9 · v Magdeburg (H)1-3
- May 2 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)2-0
- Apr 25 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-0
- Apr 17 · v Kaiserslautern (H)3-0
- Apr 10 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Dynamo Dresden | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.