2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 18 · 11:00 · Dynamo Dresden vs VfL Bochum 1848
Likeliest: Dynamo Dresden win · 65%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dynamo Dresden65%41%+24
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−6
OursMarket
VfL Bochum 184816%34%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 62% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 66% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 59% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 75% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 55% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dynamo Dresden
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Apr 11 · at Nürnberg (A)2-0
- Apr 4 · v Hertha BSC (H)0-1
- Mar 21 · at Paderborn (A)1-2
- Mar 15 · v Preußen Münster (H)6-0
- Mar 8 · at Karlsruher SC (A)3-3
VfL Bochum 1848
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Apr 12 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)4-1
- Apr 4 · at Magdeburg (A)1-4
- Mar 22 · v Holstein Kiel (H)2-3
- Mar 14 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Kaiserslautern (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Dynamo Dresden | VfL Bochum 1848 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.