Premier League (Ukraine) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:30 · Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty Lviv
Likeliest: Dynamo Kyiv win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dynamo Kyiv57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Karpaty Lviv18%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dynamo Kyiv
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Zoria Luhansk (A)2-0
- Sep 14 · v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · at Bukovyna Chernivtsi (A)0-3
- Aug 16 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)2-1
Karpaty Lviv
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Veres Rivne (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Kolos Kovalivka (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Bukovyna Chernivtsi (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Dynamo Kyiv | Karpaty Lviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.