Premier League (Ukraine) · Fri, Oct 23 · 10:00 · Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka
Likeliest: Dynamo Kyiv win · 68%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dynamo Kyiv68%70%−2
OursMarket
Draw20%18%+1
OursMarket
Kudrivka13%11%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 66% | −14 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 89% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 30% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 82% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 86% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dynamo Kyiv
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Polissya Zhytomyr (A)1-3
- Oct 11 · v Karpaty Lviv (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Zoria Luhansk (A)2-0
- Sep 14 · v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)0-0
Kudrivka
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Bukovyna Chernivtsi (H)4-1
- Oct 11 · at LNZ Cherkasy (A)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Veres Rivne (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at Polissya Zhytomyr (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Dynamo Kyiv | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.