National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Eastleigh vs Boston United
Likeliest: Eastleigh win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eastleigh40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Boston United33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eastleigh
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Brentwood Town (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · at Hornchurch (A)0-2
- Oct 3 · v Woking (H)1-3
- Sep 30 · v Southend United (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Harrogate Town (A)1-4
Boston United
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Scunthorpe United (H)1-3
- Oct 10 · v Southend United (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Yeovil Town (A)0-6
- Sep 29 · at FC Halifax Town (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v AFC Fylde (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Eastleigh | Boston United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.