National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Eastleigh vs Woking
Likeliest: Woking win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eastleigh29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%26%+4
OursMarket
Woking42%42%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 74% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eastleigh
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 30 · v Southend United (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Harrogate Town (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · v Carlisle United (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Sutton United (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Boreham Wood (H)1-1
Woking
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 29 · v Solihull Moors (H)2-4
- Sep 26 · at Carlisle United (A)5-2
- Sep 19 · v Kidderminster Harriers (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at Boston United (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Altrincham (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Eastleigh | Woking |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.