National League South (England Amateur) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Ebbsfleet United vs Maidenhead United
Likeliest: Ebbsfleet United win · 63%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Ebbsfleet United63%——
OursMarket
Draw20%——
OursMarket
Maidenhead United17%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ebbsfleet United
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Weston Super Mare (H)6-1
- Oct 13 · v Totton (H)5-0
- Oct 10 · at Hampton & Richmond Borough (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v Sholing FC (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Maidenhead United (A)3-1
Maidenhead United
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Maidstone United (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Tonbridge Angels (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Ebbsfleet United (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Faversham Town (H)0-1
- May 5 · v Boston United (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Ebbsfleet United | Maidenhead United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.