National League South (England Amateur) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Ebbsfleet United vs Weston Super Mare
Likeliest: Ebbsfleet United win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ebbsfleet United51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Weston Super Mare23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ebbsfleet United
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 13 · v Totton (H)5-0
- Oct 10 · at Hampton & Richmond Borough (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v Sholing FC (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Maidenhead United (A)3-1
- Nov 1 · at Grimsby Town (A)1-3
Weston Super Mare
DrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Folkestone Invicta (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · at Wimborne Town (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Wimborne Town (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ebbsfleet United | Weston Super Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — |
| Both teams scored | 40% | — |
| Clean sheets | 40% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.