Friendly International (World) · Mon, Oct 5 · 06:30 · Ecuador vs Panama
Likeliest: Ecuador win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ecuador58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Panama17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ecuador
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 1 · at Japan (A)0-0
- Sep 24 · at South Korea (A)0-3
- Jul 1 · at Mexico (A)0-2
- Jun 25 · v Germany (H)2-1
- Jun 21 · v Curaçao (H)0-0
Panama
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 1 · v New Zealand (H)1-1
- Sep 25 · at India (A)0-0
- Jun 27 · v England (H)0-2
- Jun 23 · v Croatia (H)0-1
- Jun 17 · at Ghana (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Ecuador | Panama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-0 | 1-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.