1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · Egersund vs Hødd IL
Likeliest: Egersund win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Egersund53%56%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+2
OursMarket
Hødd IL22%22%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 68% | −10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Egersund
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 2 · at Ranheim IL (A)0-5
- Sep 20 · at Odds BK (A)1-5
- Sep 16 · at Jerv (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Kongsvinger (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Lyn FK (A)1-1
Hødd IL
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Odds BK (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Kongsvinger (A)1-5
- Sep 16 · at Træff (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Lyn FK (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Åsane (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Egersund | Hødd IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-2 | 3-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.