1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:30 · Egersund vs Sogndal IL
Likeliest: Egersund win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Egersund49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Sogndal IL29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 73% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Egersund
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 14 · at Moss FK (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Hødd IL (H)3-1
- Oct 2 · at Ranheim IL (A)0-5
- Sep 20 · at Odds BK (A)1-5
- Sep 16 · at Jerv (A)2-1
Sogndal IL
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 14 · v Odds BK (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Åsane (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Sotra (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Strømmen IF (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Egersund | Sogndal IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.