Friendly International (World) · Sun, Oct 4 · 18:00 · Egypt vs South Africa
Likeliest: Egypt win · 46%
A 31% draw. The market says 27%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Egypt46%53%−7
OursMarket
Draw31%27%+4
OursMarket
South Africa23%20%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 41% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 80% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 47% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 73% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 72% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Egypt
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 29 · at South Sudan (A)5-0
- Sep 25 · v Angola (H)0-0
- Jul 7 · at Argentina (A)2-3
- Jul 3 · at Australia (A)1-1
- Jun 27 · v Iran (H)1-1
South Africa
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 30 · at Eritrea (A)5-0
- Sep 26 · v Guinea (H)2-1
- Jun 28 · v Canada (H)0-1
- Jun 25 · v South Korea (H)1-0
- Jun 18 · at Czechia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Egypt | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 3-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.