La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Sep 27 · 16:30 · Eibar vs Las Palmas
Likeliest: Eibar win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eibar47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
Las Palmas23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eibar
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at CD Eldense (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Celta Vigo B (A)4-0
- Sep 6 · v Granada (H)3-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Andorra (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Real Valladolid (H)1-0
Las Palmas
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Leganés (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Girona FC (A)2-5
- Aug 22 · at AD Ceuta (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Eibar | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.