La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:15 · Eibar vs Mallorca
Likeliest: draw · 36%
Likely score: 1–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the draw. The market says 33%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eibar32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw36%33%+3
OursMarket
Mallorca32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eibar
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 12 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-3
- Oct 3 · at Albacete Balompié (A)3-1
- Sep 27 · v Las Palmas (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · at CD Eldense (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Celta Vigo B (A)4-0
Mallorca
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Las Palmas (H)3-1
- Oct 4 · at Girona FC (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Almería (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Real Sociedad B (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v CE Sabadell (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Eibar | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.