La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Aug 23 · 15:00 · Eibar vs Real Valladolid
Likeliest: Eibar win · 73%
We make it 65% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eibar73%43%+30
OursMarket
Draw19%31%−12
OursMarket
Real Valladolid7%26%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 41% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 40% | 49% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 74% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 57% | −30 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 69% | +12 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 62% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eibar
WinLossLoss
- Aug 16 · v CD Tenerife (H)1-3
- May 31 · at CD Castellón (A)1-2
- May 24 · v Córdoba (H)2-0
Real Valladolid
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 15 · at Mallorca (A)0-2
- May 31 · at Almería (A)0-1
- May 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)0-2
- May 16 · at Racing Santander (A)1-4
- May 9 · v Real Zaragoza (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Eibar | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 20% |
| Both teams scored | — | 20% |
| Clean sheets | — | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.