Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 · EIF vs SJK Akatemia
Likeliest: EIF win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
EIF58%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
SJK Akatemia21%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
EIF
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · at JäPS (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Haka (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at PK-35 (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Jippo Joensuu (H)0-2
- Aug 22 · v KTP (H)0-1
SJK Akatemia
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v KäPa (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · at MP (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v JäPS (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · v HJK Klubi 04 (H)2-6
- Aug 21 · at FC Haka (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | EIF | SJK Akatemia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-4 | 1-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.