DFB Pokal (Germany) · Sun, Aug 23 · 13:30 · Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: Eintracht Braunschweig win · 50%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Braunschweig50%25%+25
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
1. FC Union Berlin27%50%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 50% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 75% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 34% | +32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Braunschweig
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 14 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)0-1
- Aug 8 · at 1. FC Magdeburg (A)6-1
- May 17 · at Schalke 04 (A)0-1
- May 9 · v Dynamo Dresden (H)2-1
- May 2 · at Holstein Kiel (A)0-2
1. FC Union Berlin
LossLossDrawWinWin
- May 16 · v FC Augsburg (H)4-0
- May 10 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)3-1
- May 2 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Apr 24 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-3
- Apr 18 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Braunschweig | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.