2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 9 · 16:30 · Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel
Likeliest: Holstein Kiel win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Braunschweig33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Holstein Kiel41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Braunschweig
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v SG Dynamo Dresden (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)1-3
- Aug 28 · v Hertha BSC (H)3-5
- Aug 23 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)2-4
Holstein Kiel
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at 1. FC Heidenheim (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at 1. FC Magdeburg (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · at TSV 1860 München (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Braunschweig | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.