Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
1. FC Köln27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-6
- Sep 19 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-4
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)3-3
1. FC Köln
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-4
- Aug 29 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.