Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 31 · 14:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 33%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt43%33%+10
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−2
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen34%41%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 67% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 45% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Jan 28 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-3
- Jan 21 · at Qarabağ (A)2-3
- Jan 16 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-3
- Jan 13 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossLossLossWinWin
- Jan 28 · v Villarreal (H)3-0
- Jan 24 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
- Jan 20 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)0-2
- Jan 17 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-1
- Jan 10 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Eintracht Frankfurt form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record