Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Jan 9 · 19:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 27%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt39%27%+12
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−1
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund36%47%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 53% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 73% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 37% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Dec 20 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Dec 13 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-0
- Dec 9 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-6
- Nov 30 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
Borussia Dortmund
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Dec 19 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-1
- Dec 10 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)2-2
- Dec 7 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-0
- Dec 2 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Eintracht Frankfurt form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record