Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 5 · 15:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
FC Köln28%27%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 64% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Mar 22 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
- Mar 14 · v Heidenheim (H)1-0
- Mar 8 · at St. Pauli (A)0-0
- Mar 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-0
- Feb 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-3
FC Köln
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Mar 21 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-3
- Mar 14 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Feb 27 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.