Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 2 · 13:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 52%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 62%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt52%55%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Hamburger SV25%22%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 62% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 72% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Apr 25 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-3
- Apr 11 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
Hamburger SV
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 25 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-3
- Apr 12 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
- Apr 4 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Eintracht Frankfurt form·Hamburger SV form·Head-to-head record