Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 14 · 14:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 41%
A 36% away win. The market says 17%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt41%62%−21
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Heidenheim36%17%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 83% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 38% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 78% | −25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Mar 8 · at St. Pauli (A)0-0
- Mar 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-0
- Feb 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-3
- Feb 14 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-0
- Feb 6 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-1
Heidenheim
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Mar 7 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-4
- Feb 28 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
- Feb 15 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-1
- Feb 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Eintracht Frankfurt form·Heidenheim form·Head-to-head record