Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 18 · 16:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 28%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt38%28%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
RB Leipzig38%48%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 66% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 52% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 72% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 37% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Apr 11 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
- Mar 14 · v Heidenheim (H)1-0
- Mar 8 · at St. Pauli (A)0-0
RB Leipzig
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 11 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-1
- Mar 20 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)5-0
- Mar 15 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Eintracht Frankfurt form·RB Leipzig form·Head-to-head record