Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 1 · 16:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 40%
A 37% away win. The market says 28%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt40%44%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
SC Freiburg37%28%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 72% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 61% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-3
- Feb 14 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-0
- Feb 6 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-1
- Jan 31 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
- Jan 28 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-2
SC Freiburg
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Feb 22 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-3
- Feb 10 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Eintracht Frankfurt form·SC Freiburg form·Head-to-head record