Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
SC Freiburg36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 12 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-4
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)3-3
- Aug 21 · at SC St Tönis 11/20 (A)11-0
- May 16 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-2
SC Freiburg
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)4-1
- Aug 27 · v Motherwell (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)5-1
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Eintracht Frankfurt form·SC Freiburg form·Head-to-head record