Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 24 · 14:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 32%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt42%32%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim34%42%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 59% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 58% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 68% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 43% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Jan 21 · at Qarabağ (A)2-3
- Jan 16 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-3
- Jan 13 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-3
- Jan 9 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)3-3
- Dec 20 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
TSG Hoffenheim
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 17 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-0
- Jan 14 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)5-1
- Dec 20 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-0
- Dec 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-1
- Dec 7 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Eintracht Frankfurt form·TSG Hoffenheim form·Head-to-head record