Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 16 · 13:30 · Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 40%
A 38% home win. The market says 28%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eintracht Frankfurt38%28%+11
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart40%50%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 72% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 36% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- May 8 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- May 2 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-3
- Apr 11 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- May 9 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-1
- May 2 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-3
- Apr 26 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-1
- Apr 23 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Apr 19 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Eintracht Frankfurt | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Eintracht Frankfurt form·VfB Stuttgart form·Head-to-head record