USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:00 · El Paso Locomotive FC vs New Mexico United
Likeliest: El Paso Locomotive FC win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
El Paso Locomotive FC55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
New Mexico United21%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
El Paso Locomotive FC
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v Sacramento Republic FC (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Orange County SC (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Lexington SC (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v FC Tulsa (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Phoenix Rising FC (A)3-1
New Mexico United
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at San Antonio FC (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Monterey Bay FC (H)3-1
- Oct 4 · v Phoenix Rising FC (H)2-1
- Oct 1 · at FC Tulsa (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v Sacramento Republic FC (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | El Paso Locomotive FC | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.