USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 11 · 01:00 · El Paso Locomotive FC vs Orange County SC
Likeliest: El Paso Locomotive FC win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
El Paso Locomotive FC62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Orange County SC17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
El Paso Locomotive FC
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Lexington SC (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v FC Tulsa (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Phoenix Rising FC (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Louisville City FC (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Loudoun United FC (H)4-1
Orange County SC
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 4 · v Monterey Bay FC (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · v Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Lexington SC (A)0-6
- Sep 13 · v Las Vegas Lights (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Sacramento Republic FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | El Paso Locomotive FC | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-1 | 2-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.