USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 01:00 · El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic FC
Likeliest: Sacramento Republic FC win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
El Paso Locomotive FC28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Sacramento Republic FC44%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
El Paso Locomotive FC
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Orange County SC (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Lexington SC (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v FC Tulsa (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Phoenix Rising FC (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Louisville City FC (A)2-1
Sacramento Republic FC
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · v Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · at FC Tulsa (A)1-1
- Oct 1 · v Las Vegas Lights (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at New Mexico United (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · v San Antonio FC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | El Paso Locomotive FC | Sacramento Republic FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.