CONCACAF Nations League · Sat, Oct 3 · 02:00 · El Salvador vs Jamaica
Likeliest: Jamaica win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
El Salvador33%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Jamaica37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
El Salvador
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 29 · at Guatemala (A)0-6
- Sep 26 · v Martinique (H)3-1
- Jun 6 · at Qatar (A)0-0
- Jun 4 · at Korea Republic (A)0-1
- Jun 4 · at South Korea (A)0-1
Jamaica
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 29 · v Honduras (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Guatemala (H)0-0
- Jun 6 · v South Africa (H)1-1
- Jun 6 · v South Africa (H)0-1
- May 30 · v Nigeria (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | El Salvador | Jamaica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.