La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Apr 22 · 17:00 · Elche vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Elche win · 38%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid37%33%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 55% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
LossLossWinLossWin
- Apr 11 · v Valencia (H)1-0
- Apr 3 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Mar 8 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
Atlético Madrid
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Apr 18 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-2
- Apr 14 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- Apr 8 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Elche | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.