La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Aug 23 · 19:30 · Elche vs Barcelona
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 50%
We make it 70% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche31%11%+20
OursMarket
Draw19%16%+3
OursMarket
Barcelona50%73%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 65% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 53% | +17 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 27% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 89% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 13% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Aug 17 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- May 23 · at Girona (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- May 12 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
Barcelona
WinWinLossWinLoss
- May 23 · at Valencia (A)1-3
- May 17 · v Real Betis (H)3-1
- May 13 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Real Madrid (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Elche | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.