La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 · Elche vs Celta Vigo
Likeliest: Celta Vigo win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Celta Vigo37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 18 · at Espanyol (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Real Madrid (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-3
Celta Vigo
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Racing de Santander (H)5-0
- Sep 16 · at Omonia Nicosia (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Málaga (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Getafe (A)1-1
- Sep 3 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Elche | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.