La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 9 · 12:00 · Elche vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Elche win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 42%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Elche54%42%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−7
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés24%29%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 58% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 59% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Elche
LossWinWinWinLoss
- May 3 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-3
- Apr 26 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
- Apr 11 · v Valencia (H)1-0
- Apr 3 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
Deportivo Alavés
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- May 2 · v Athletic Club (H)2-4
- Apr 25 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-3
- Apr 5 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Elche | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.